Análisis del efecto de las sobretasas arancelarias en la economía del Ecuador

Abstract

Trade policy instruments have been used by different countries over time, and as in the case of Ecuador, they are intended to provide temporary protection to industries. This project aims to analyze the effects caused by tariff surcharges in the economy of Ecuador which reflect on indicators such as the GDP, inflation and imports, in order to provide trade policy guidelines to promote economic growth. The applied methodology is based on a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), which, through its impulse-response analysis shows the effects on macroeconomic indicators against a shock in the collection of tariff taxes. The results show that the elimination of tariff surtaxes would provoke the increased GDP as imports and decreased inflation. This research could serve as a guideline in terms of developing new studies in this area and contribute to the design of public policies.