Evaluación hidrológica de la cuenca del río coca en función del cambio de uso de suelo por medio del modelo swat

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the effects of land use change on different hydrological variables and solid discharges in the Coca River Basin. The stated objective was carried out by hydrological modeling of land use and land cover change scenarios (LULC). It began with the prediction of business as usual scenario (BAU). This was done with the view of the persistence of the current dynamics of the basin until 2030, for which the LCM tool of TerrSet program was implemented. Once the projection was made, the proposed scenarios of the TEEB-Coca River Basin project were included to proceed with the simulation of water balance through the SWAT model. The suspended solid flow rates were estimated by applying the sediment rating curve. In the comparative evaluation it was found that LULC are influential in hydrological processes and sediment production. The stream flow rate and water yield have not presented much change. However, as the anthropic intervention focused on growth of pasture increases, the annual and monthly runoff increases up to 24,56 %, and base flow decreases by 8,56 % at the basin level. The yield of suspended solids presents the biggest changes between 23,13 and 52,38 %.