Análisis del impacto socioeconómico de los lahares y caída de ceniza ante una eventual erupción del volcán Cayambe en la actividad florícola en los cantones de Cayambe y Pedro Moncayo

Abstract

zar el área de estudio y describir el impacto que un evento de este tipo tendría sobre la población local. Así se determinó que la caída de ceniza sería el principal problema ante una erupción del volcán Cayambe, con espesores de ceniza de 50 mm, 30 mm y 20 mm cubren el 81.46% de la superficie con pérdidas que ascienden los 300 USD millones en plantas e invernaderos. En el caso de lahares las pérdidas se darían en los suelos, los cuales serían enterrados por flujos de lodo y con esto, se estiman pérdidas de entre los 3 USD millones en el caso de lahares secundarios (1,160.66 hectáreas) y 5 USD millones en caso de lahares primarios (1,511.10 hectáreas).

PALABRAS CLAVES: Ceniza, Lahar, SIG, Cayambe, Impacto socioeconómico MATERIA PRINCIPAL: Evaluación de la Amenaza y Riesgo Volcánico MATERIA SECUNDARIA: -

TRADUCCION AL INGLES

TITLE: Analysis of the socioeconomic impact of the lahars and ash fall in the event of an eventual eruption of the Cayambe volcano in the floricultural activity in the cantons of Cayambe and Pedro Moncayo

ABSTRACT: According to the Population and Housing Census 2010, the population of the Cayambe and Pedro Moncayo cantons reaches 118,967 inhabitants. The Cayambe volcanic complex represents a potential danger for those populations that base their economy on floriculture. So far no estimates have been made of the economic impact of an eventual of the Cayambe volcano eruption in the area. Only the eruption in 2002 of El Reventador Volcano, which according to IGEPN reports reached a volcanic explosivity index VEI = 4, and which in economic terms represented about $ 300,000 of losses in the Pichincha. In the present work, an estimation of the economic impact with respect to the threats by ash fall and lahars during an eruption of the Cayambe was made. The determination of zones of affectation by ash fall was obtained by means of a statistical analysis of numerical simulations of eruptive scenarios. In contrast, the areas affected by lahars were taken from the new hazard map of the Cayambe volcano. 39,006 buildings were digitized, especially those related to the floricultural activity, using as an input the updated aerial photography of the sector, with the objective of identifying and quantifying the infrastructure that could potentially be affected by the occurrence of both Phenomena. The analysis and processing of the census data allowed to characterize the study area and to describe the impact that an event of this type would have on the local population. Thus it was determined that the ash fall would be the main problem before an eruption of the Cayambe volcano, with ash thickness of 50 mm, 30 mm and 20 mm covering 81.46% of the surface with losses that amount to 300 USD million in plants and greenhouses. In the case of lahars losses occur in soils, which would be buried by sludge flows and with this, losses of between USD 3 million are estimated in case of the case of secondary lahars (1,160.66 hectares) and USD 5 million in lahars Primary (1,511,10 hectares).