Simulación Numérica Tridimensional del Flujo de Lahares Primarios en el Flanco Norte del Volcán Cotopaxi

Abstract

The main objective of the present titling project is to perform the three-dimensional numerical simulation of the transit of mud flows and debris of Volcanic origin resulting from a possible eruption of the Cotopaxi Volcano on the North Flank. We used the FLOW-3D computational package. The necessary parameters as: geomorphological bases, initial conditions, boundary conditions and meshes were obtained for further modeling simulation of the eruptive event of June 1877, called the calibration event. The results of flow levels were compared with field data of the traces of the eruptive event, to validate the model. Once the model was calibrated, the numerical modeling was performed for the most probable eruptive scenario. Because of the modeling, data were obtained on flow levels, maximum velocities, reservoir volumes, lahar arrival times and flood areas, with which updated flood maps were generated along the study area. In addition, a comparison of flood areas was carried out in the most densely populated area, with the results of the simulation in the IBER two-dimensional model and the comparison of the total flood area with the Threat Map Areas proposed by the Geophysical Institute of the EPN.