Construcción de escenarios macro socioeconómico-energético-ambientales para Ecuador 2016-2030

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the current situation of the Productive and Energy Matrix of Ecuador. The government of Ecuador under the mandate of Econ. Rafael Correa (2007-2017) presented a proposal for changes to the Produtive Matrix, aligned to the "Plan del Buen Vivir", which highlights the need for development in the Ecuadorian industry so that the Ecuadorian economy (income) stop depend mainly on the export of primary products and exploitation of oil; and become an industrialized country. The research focused on demonstrating how the development of the productive matrix and the change in the consumption of the energy matrix can converge on environmental sustainability. In this way, an analysis of the current situation within the productive matrix and type of energy was performed, resulting in the Ecuador in 2015 remains dependent on primary commodities and the energy matrix despite its development and diversification, not It shows changes in the type of energy consumption, showing great dependence on fossil fuel consumption. Starting from the investigation and analysis of the current situation, two energy stages are proposed, the first stage (Business as Usual or Trend) formed from the trends to be followed by historical data shows that Ecuador retains its dependence on oil exports, and non-oil exports with producers such as shrimp, bananas, cacao, flowers, which do not go through a process that generates higher added value. The alternative stage proposes to reduce fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions generated by the burning of this fuel through the creation of biofuels for the production of biofuels and the substitution of 5% to 10% of diesel for biodiesel; in addition, a roadmap is presented as a long-term planning that will achieve the goals defined to 2030. The conclusion of the paper suggests the need for change within energy consumption since 80% comes from sources of fossil fuels, being the sector with greater consumption the transport with a participation of 52.61%