Análisis de la política fiscal y el rol del endeudamiento público en el Ecuador a través de indicadores de sostenibilidad fiscal en el período 2000 – 2012

Abstract

The aim of this project is to analyze the trajectory and fiscal policy decisions regarding sustainability and the total public debt incurred in Ecuador during the 2000 – 2012 period, established in the legal basis (Law on Responsibility, Stabilization and Fiscal Transparency - LOREYTF, Organic Code of Planning and Public Finance - COPLAFIP and Constitution 2008); for which the methodology consists of calculating a set of fiscal sustainability indicators, which are: Acevedo (2001), Blanchard (1990), Buiter (1985) and Croce and Juan Ramón (2003). In addition, this research estimates a regression model using time series to assess the impact of fiscal policy sustainability. It is concluded that sustainability of fiscal policy can be evaluated by estimating the proposed indicators, as they provide a framework for broader relevant aspects, so that a permanent fiscal effort is required to raise the primary surplus and to strengthen the solvency of governments. Furthermore, no structural change is evidenced in stabilizing the relationship between total public debt and GDP after the establishment of forty percent as the limit on the COPLAFIP.