Predicción de la curva de demanda eléctrica a largo plazo en el S.N.I. incluyendo la implementación del Plan Nacional de Cocción Eficiente.

Abstract

During the 50s and 60s , forecasts of electricity demand received little attention , since the prices of petroleum products used in power generation were low and predictable. But the oil crisis changed all that, introducing uncertainty factors, which forced the utilities to plan and forecast demand for energy for future years. The titling project presents a method for estimating demand values in the long term he uses econometric methods and techniques of exponential smoothing. Furthermore, the effect generated by the National Plan Efficient Cooking is included to demonstrate the change in shape of the load curve to experience the S.N.I. once the project is fully operational. Have adequate forecasts to determine the power supply optimizing resources, with minimal operating costs. Overestimated forecasts involve maintaining wasted resources out of operation, unlike, have underrated forecasts means that the system will not find ready to meet the demand growth.