Determinación de los indicadores financieros con mayor influencia dentro de la salud financiera de las pymes del sector manufacturero de la ciudad de Quito

Abstract

This present study has the objective of analyzing the sector of manufacturing industries of the economy of Ecuador, sector that presents a great economic contribution, which also belongs to one of the sectors prioritized for the change of the productive matrix, a project to which the state Has allocated resources and efforts in order to improve the country's stability. The research focuses on the industry sector through financial indicators, data provided by the Superintendency of Companies, Securities and Insurance, working based on information by business segments (small and medium-sized enterprises) for the years 2011 to 2013, applying results with the available data of the year 2014 of the companies of the mentioned sector. Logit regression (Logit), proposed by James Ohlson (1980), is used. In his paper published the same year he applied this statistical technique, the model uses the population of healthy and broken companies between 1970 and 1978. Working with Financial indicators, Ohlson determines a probability that can take values from 0 to 1, with the cutoff point of 0,5, for research purposes from 0 to 0,5 companies are classified as broken, however, if the probability reaches Take a value greater than 0,5 to 1 these are established as healthy companies. At the end of this investigation, it is recommended greater exhaustiveness in the collection of information of the financial statements of the companies for any economic sector, since the lack of information and the imprecision of the same subtract predictive power to the models that are obtained and potential to this studio.