Quiebra bancaria: un análisis econométrico para el Ecuador

Abstract

The financial system is a vehicle that, under proper management and supervision, contributes to the real economic growth of a country. However, a problem that afflicts this sector involves aspects of financial fragility, especially bank failure. For this reason, the participation of a control agent is essential in order to achieve a healthy financial system that guarantees full financial intermediation and confidence towards the habitants. The objective of this research is to develop a bankruptcy prediction model up to one year before it happens for the Ecuadorian case, considering the number of financial institutions and the fact of bank failure as a rare event, through the use of financial ratios of financial institutions supported by the CAMELS methodology. The results suggest that even in presence of adverse macroeconomic conditions, the main factor that affects the probability of bank failure is related to a lax management and administration within the institution.