Modelo de evaluación estocástica de proyectos de gran escala del sector eléctrico – aplicación proyecto hidroeléctrico Santiago G8

Abstract

The present work describes the development of a model of economic evaluation for the application in hydroelectric projects in which the necessary input variables are identified and categorized; the values of the random variables are obtained by stochastic processes through the Monte Carlo simulation. Variables such as operation and maintenance costs, fees for use of the primary resource, energy prices, flows and operating hours are obtained by using the Random Walks and Random Walks with Brownian Geometric Movement technique, thus including the uncertainty within the economic evaluation. The economic feasibility criterion is based on the net present value, for which several simulations of the proposed model are carried out, the results obtained are presented in the form of histograms within which the statistical parameters are identified. The developed model is applied on Santiago G8 Hydroelectric Project of 3600 MW for economic evaluation. Additionally, economic performance indicators such as cost benefit ratio, internal rate of return, year of capital recovery and level energy cost are presented.