Modelo de pronóstico para el número de estudiantes que se matricularían en las carreras ofertadas por la Facultad de Ciencias de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to propose a forecast model to know the number of students that would be enrolled in the careers offered by Facultad de Ciencias of Escuela Politécnica Nacional. For this, through the panel data methodology, a model is estimated by Feasible Generalized Least Squares. The analysis shows that, on average, most students enrolled in Ciencias subjects come from public schools, have a scholarship, and have a job. In addition, the factors that most influence the time of enrolment are related to the characteristics of the students and the subject, conversely with characteristics of the teacher. The study suggests an increase in the number of students in all careers for the following years, except for the first academic periods in Economía, which after a restructuring of careers has some decrease.