Modelización matemática de la incidencia de especies de hormigas a través del tiempo con la inclusión de variables relacionadas al calentamiento global

Abstract

Extreme weather conditions are becoming more intense and more unpredictable. In addition, ants are important for the maintenance and functioning of many ecosystems due to the services they provide in the environment, consequently it is necessary to establish a relationship between environmental variables and the occurrence of a species. In this paper, a model of autoregressive vectors is put forward to determine the disturbance in the presence or absence of ant species over time caused by the change in climatic variables. The data was sourced from the Smithsonian Institute for Tropical Research (STRI) and it corresponds to historical information of ants collected in Barro Colorado Island from 2002 to 2017 and information of climatological variables was sourced from STRI and the National

Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The changes in the climatological variables were based on the realization of probabilistic scenarios based on the simulation of the climatological variables with an increase in the mean of the adjusted distribution of each one. Finally, the results show that there is a contemporary effect in the incidence of one species caused by the incidence of another, additionally, it was deduced that climatic variables influence the presence or absence of species.