Disponibilidad de agua en el futuro en base a escenarios de Cambio Climático y situaciones climáticas extremas observadas en el pasado: El caso de la cuenca alta del río Guayllabamba.

Abstract

It is evident that the impact of climate change will affect global precipitation variability. Therefore, the present work is based on the analysis of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model that allows the simulation of maximum and minimum flows, using an evaluation method for a reference period with the entire data series and three subperiods: wet, dry, and a subperiod of the reference period. The purpose was to obtain the most satisfactory simulation capable of being replicated for future precipitation scenarios. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency criterion was used to obtain the parameters of each model, which describes the fit and reliability of the simulations carried out for each of the subperiods. To perform the analysis, a time series on a monthly scale between 1981 and 2000 was used, and an analysis for the hydrological year between September and August was also used for data input. For calibration, 2/3 of the time series of each subperiod or period was used, while the remaining 1/3 of the time series was used for validation. In addition, each simulated subperiod was adjusted under the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion, which left as results that the best modeling obtained were for the reference period with the entire data series and wet subperiod with values between 60% and 80% efficiency, indicating that the model is reliable and can be replicated to predict future events in the Guayllabamba river basin. It was also concluded that for the dry subperiod it is important to have a more robust or extensive data series to obtain a better fit. However, in general terms, the GR2M rainfall-runoff model can be used reliably based on the Nash adjustment criteria, which characterized them as "very good" for the reference period and the wet subperiod, but "insufficient" for the dry subperiod