Estudio sobre la probabilidad de pérdida de negocios por baja demanda ante la crisis sanitaria de Covid-19 en Latinoamérica y El Caribe.

Abstract

In the context of the current crisis owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, this investigation studies the probability of business closure due to low demand in Latin America and the Caribbean. For this purpose, a Probit model is used to estimate the influence of some selected individual variables on the probability of business closure in the region. The study presents empirical evidence that demographic variables such as age, education and gender of the owner, influence the probability of closure. Furthermore, it is concluded that having health insurance, significantly reduces the probability of closure. The results suggest that receiving income from the commerce, services, manufacturing and agriculture sectors have a greater probability of closure than the extraction and energy, the public or other unconventional sectors. Finally, it is shown that the development level of the country and the social benefits implemented, influence the probability of business closure. As a complement, the study includes a brief analysis of the policies most frequently implemented by the countries considered.