Análisis de los determinantes socioeconómicos y financieros del desempleo en el Ecuador durante la crisis sanitaria por el covid-19.

Abstract

The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused the greatest health, human, economic and social crisis the world has faced in the last century since World War II. In 2020, more than 90% of economies went into recession, with the Latin American region being one of the most affected (World Bank, 2021). In this context, the countries of the region found it necessary to request financing from multilateral organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the aim of obtaining the necessary resources to face the COVID-19 crisis. To resume its relationship with the IMF, in October 2020, the government of Ecuador signed a technical agreement in which the reformulation of the Organic Code of Planning and Public Finance, and the modification of the Labor and Tax Code are proposed. Within the framework of the technical agreement, the IMF proposes an increase of three percentage points to the Value Added Tax (VAT), the elimination of the foreign exchange exit tax credit in the payment of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and the inclusion of the thirteenth and fourteenth salaries, together with the VAT creditable in the base of the Personal Income Tax (PIT). In this sense, this research evaluates ex-ante the macroeconomic effects generated by a possible tax reform to VAT, CIT and PIT in the Ecuadorian economy. To this end, a static Computable General Equilibrium Model is developed, and a policy proposal is proposed to meet the collection objective of the current Government. The results suggest that an increase in taxes generates higher revenues for the State, but in turn, it increases income inequality and reduces the well-being of households. In addition, the simulations reveal that the first scenario (VAT) is regressive in nature but generates higher tax revenue; while the second scenario (CIT and PIT) is progressive, but hardly collects. Finally, the third scenario, which is a hybrid between VAT and personal income tax, cushions the distributive effects of VAT, and meets the revenue goal of the current government.