Propuesta metodológica para el cálculo del circulante en dolarización oficial : caso Ecuador.

Abstract

This work covers one of the problems that arise for the BCE under an officially dollarized scheme, this is the measurement of the Monetary Species in Circulation (MSC). From 2007 to the present date, the CBE has implemented the methodology proposed by Vera (2007) to measure the MSC, despite this, this methodology is the result of a series of assumptions that turn out to be restrictive, and that throughout this paper they are analyzed with the purpose of presenting methodological alternatives that allow the measuring of new monetary aggregates. Two alternatives are formulated: 1) As a result of the criticism, certain modifications are proposed on the Circulating Flow Method of Vera (2007) that allow establishing changes over the specification of the original equation; 2) In response to the assumption imposed on the Monetary Multiplier Method, which consists of maintaining the same liquidity preferences before and during dollarization, a liquidity preference index is constructed that allows the assumption to be made more flexible using the Principal Components Analysis ( PCA). The results suggest that, for 1) a new specification should be proposed that includes the estimates of the MSC exit due to border tourism and smuggling, but because these estimates are outside the scope of the work, no quantifiable results are presented; while for 2) the estimates obtained suggest a behavior of the MSC more in line with the theory suggested in the work.