Planificación de la expansión de los sistemas de transmisión: análisis de las incertidumbres más relevantes en el problema de la planificación de la expansión de la transmisión.

Abstract

In the planning stage of transmission system expansion, it is important for the planner to identify and evaluate the variables that directly affect the development of a plan for a time horizon. Special consideration is given to variables that present unpredictable behaviour, which generate changes in the expansion plans obtained, and such plans may become over or under investments depending on the scenario that is already realized in reality. These variables depend on external elements such as: state policies, environmental factors, regulatory frameworks, errors in decision making, among others. Within this environment, the main sources of uncertainty in planning are identified as: the demand for electrical energy, the price of fuel, the availability of generation resources and changes in the planning of the expansion of energy generation. electrical. To treat and study uncertainties, mathematical models are analysed that the planner can use in the estimation or forecast of possible scenarios, and consider them within their planning model. In this context, within this Curricular Integration Work, through the implementation of practical examples, different modelling options are presented for the main uncertainties identified, making comparisons between deterministic and stochastic models.