Identificación del riesgo en trámites de devolución de IVA de uso y consumo personal a personas con discapacidad a través de un modelo predictivo con enfoque de gestión de riesgos

Abstract

The return of the Value Added Tax (VAT) on personal use and consumption for people with disabilities in Ecuador aims to improve the quality of life of this priority group; however, there is the possibility that the beneficiaries of the refund request the tax administration – Servicio de Rentas Internas (SRI) - monetary compensation for goods that are not legitimized in the current regulations; therefore, the purpose of the investigation is to identify the risk behavior in VAT refund procedures through a logistic model that allows classifying the procedure as risky. To accomplish this goal it's used a data base about the return procedures to 2015, it is provided by SRI; In addition, the importance of including risk management in the procedures of tax administrations, The results obtained show that variables such as the percentage of disability, amounts requested for return, number of bills which support the process determine if the procedure is risky or not.