Análisis de riesgo en la solicitud de devolución por pago indebido y/o pago en exceso del impuesto a la renta a personas naturales, que realizan el trámite por ventanilla, período fiscal 2015 – 2016

Abstract

Tax revenues are a major source of government financing, so the Servicio de Rentas Internas (SRI) of Ecuador, as the entity in charge of managing and applying tax policies, looks for increasing tax collection. In this way, tax evasion rates as well as wrong refunds, decrease the net tax collection. Risk management is one of the main strategies of the SRI to improve its collection and tax refund processes. This study analyzes the risk in the refund request of wrongful payment and/or excessive payment, related to the natural people income tax, which carry out the procedure by the payment counter of SRI’s office. To do so, a logistic regression is estimated using the data provided by the SRI covering the September 2015 - September 2016 fiscal period. The results suggest that there are internal (refund process) and external factors that may affect the risk probability of the taxpayer request.