Pronóstico de la demanda en energía y potencia del sistema eléctrico Quito

Abstract

For the Empresa Eléctrica Quito, identify the future behavior of its energy demand variables constitutes a fundamental action, because, from this, the company plans its investment in electrical infrastructure. To meet for this problem, this study aims to forecast the demand for energy and power of the Sistema Eléctrico Quito in the medium term. For this, a predictive model based on the Box-Jenkins methodology is developed. The results obtained show that the structures proposed to model the power and energy demand series (supply and billing) have a better adjustment than the deterministic model actually used by the company.