Influencia de los cambios de uso de suelo sobre la disponibilidad de agua: El caso de la Cuenca Alta del Río Guayllabamba.Análisis del impacto de las variaciones del clima en la condición de uso de suelo más reciente.

Abstract

The Upper Guayllabamba River Basin (CARG) has been exposed to changes due to high human activity. As native vegetation is lost and urban settlements gain impermeability, soils are exposed to a loss of infiltration capacity, a situation that affects runoff and consequently water flow. This project seeks to determine the incidence of climate variability in the CARG with the most recent land use, through the application of the HEC - HMS hydrological model. For this purpose, two subperiods have been selected, a wet one corresponding to the years 1983 - 1984 and a dry one composed of the years 2014 - 2015. The calibration was performed based on the reference period (2010 - 2015) and the Nash - Sutcliffe coefficient was evaluated as an efficiency indicator. The model showed an efficiency of 56% meaning that it is a good representation of the basin's behavior. Also, through the calculation of the correlation between precipitation and flow in the sub-basins, it was determined that the precipitation recorded in sub-basin H-146 is the one that controls the variability of the model. Similarly, after the treatment of the resulting flows of the 3 analyzed periods, the premise was obtained that the extreme precipitation events that occurred in the past increase the variability of the reference flows, this fact is important because these events may develop in the future and also bring the influence of climate change.