Análisis de los efectos del COVID-19 en la red productiva ecuatoriana, mediante el uso de teoría de redes, período 2019-2020.

Abstract

In Ecuador, around 70% of the productive and commercial sector stopped its activities after the declaration of a health emergency. The restrictions imposed on mobility and face-to-face work affected to a greater degree the industries intensive in physical contact and, to a lesser extent, those considered essential. Since the interdependence between productive sectors characterize modern economies, the impact of the shocks caused by the restriction measures adopted by a specific sector could spread to other sectors through their productive chains. In this context, this research evaluated the effects of COVID-19 on the Ecuadorian productive network, through a comparative analysis of centrality indicators calculated from the input-output matrices for the 2019-2020 period. In particular, we identified those sectors with the greatest negative and positive shock by estimating and comparing the Degree, Betweenness, Katz, Random walk closeness and PageRank weighted centrality measures. The results suggest that the Construction (53), Oil and gas extraction (12), Trade (54), Real estate activities (63) and Professional activities (64) sectors suffered the greatest negative effects. In contrast, the Shrimp Processing and Conservation (17) along with the Aquaculture and Shrimp Fishing (9) sectors experienced the greatest positive impact.