Evaluación del modelo hidrológico HEC-HMS para la predicción hidrológica y de crecidas, en la cuenca baja del río Cañar

Abstract

Puerto Inca Town is located in the central-northern part of Ecuador, in Litoral region. For several years, Puerto Inca has suffered from the effects of the increase in water levels of Cañar River, all of which has been exacerbated due to the natural phenomenon El Niño. The purpose of this study is to execute the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) for hydrological forecast and flash flooding events of Cañar River Basin. The HEC-HMS software, divided the basin in nine Subbasin according to their fluvial network. To develop the model, several methods were considered: SCS Number of Curve to measure runoff loss due to infiltration, Muskingum Method for flooding routing analysis; and Snyder, SCS and Clark synthetic hydrographs to transform direct rainfall into runoff. In order to calibrate the model, it was considered the March, 30th, 2014 flash flooding event recorded by H0472-Puerto Inca hydrologic station. The outcomes conclude that the most accurate modelling parameters were obtained by Clark Hydrograph, and its validation was possible by replicating the modelling four times for later flooding events; two of which were reproduced satisfactorily.