Una aproximación alternativa a la metodología de proyectos tradicional PERT para la estimación de tiempos de escrutinio en juntas receptoras del voto para la dignidad presidente usando la distribución de probabilidad Weibull

Abstract

The aim of this research is to present a mathematical model given by the Weibull probability distribution as an alternative to the traditional PERT project methodology for the estimation of counting times in vote receiving boards (JRV’s) for the dignity of the president. The proposed model allows for the estimation of the unknown distribution of counting times with a Weibull probability distribution and from which a computer program in the R language is implemented. The model is validated based on the comparison with the 2013 presidential elections and showing that the counting time in JRV's can be satisfactorily estimated with a Weibull probability distribution. The results confirm that the model generates fast and accurate estimates. Indeed, once the estimates required by the proposed model are known, one can estimate the start, progress and end of the vote count in the vote receiving boards with precision. The proposed model has the advantage that it requires only 3 estimates as opposed to PERT with parameters that are generally difficult to estimate and with multiple costly estimates. Finally, the flexibility of the Weibull model and its easy implementation in spreadsheets makes it possible to use the model under a wide variety of simulation scenarios.