Reducción de la incertidumbre en la toma de decisiones usando la metodología FEL, aplicación de la visualización en la exploración geológica de la Cuenca Oriente

Abstract

This work was developed in order to demonstrate the usefulness of a methodology called Front End Loading (FEL), also known as VCD (visualization, conceptualization, definition), this tool gives us the opportunity to achieve a Positive impact on the life cycle of a project but from early stages, this intervention becomes more significant and important if we are working for a project that demands large amounts of time and investment if we analyze the project in the initial stages of visualization and conceptualization of it, we are achieving a risk mitigation and a cost reduction.

In order to identify the problems in time, before they cause irreparable consequences, it leads us to develop this intervention exercise in the early stages of a exploration project.

Today the industry has been able to determine that the main losses of the projects are due not to have clarity in the scope of the project, in the interdisciplinary collaboration, in the identification of the risks, in the ignorance of the associated costs, in addition to the fact that the deterministic models do not contribute to having sufficient scenarios for correct decision making.

For this work, following the FEL-VCD methodology in its first phase: visualization, applied in hydrocarbon exploration, our oil basins and their systems were revised to identify the best conditions of hydrocarbon generation, after a flow of 11 steps the selection of a scenario was reached and several activities for its achievement, in this way, it was possible to reduce the exploratory risk with an economic knowledge of cost Class V, which allows to move to the next stage and locate exploratory prospects for future exploratory wells. The importance of a planned work from the early stages of an exploratory study leads us to reduce the risk and impact of changes in the final instances of the methodological application, taking advantage of the available economic resources in the best way.