Propuesta de un método para el cálculo del número de paneles fotovoltaicos para microgeneración y autoabastecimiento de consumidores finales a través de la estimación de la irradiancia solar global utilizando lógica difusa.

Abstract

The technical project aims to present a method for finding the appropriate number of photovoltaic panels that should go into a photovoltaic installation to ensure the supply of energy to the load during the hours when there is solar radiation, considering factors such as the space of the installation and overall solar radiation. For this, a practical example is used by using some real data, through the elaboration of a computational model developed in the MATLAB®. The radiation is predicted by approximating the daily distribution of global irradiance through a Gaussian function, this function will be corrected later through a heuristic criterion and will use as input data meteorological parameters such as the amount of tenths of a day and the maximum global irradiance for each day, this last parameter is obtained through an expert system based on fuzzy logic and which is programmed and trained with the data of ambient temperature and relative humidity, data that are obtained in the processing stage; At the output of this expert system, the predicted maximum radiation values for each day will be obtained, all of this for a given time that can range from days to several years. In order to find the number of panels required for the photovoltaic installation to be carried out, the information found in the previous stages is used, together with the information and data obtained from the demand of the load to be connected in the said photovoltaic installation. A calculation of the peak sun hours for each day is carried out and through this concept the number of photovoltaic panels for each day will be found. With all this range of data found, the number of panels is chosen for the worst scenario, i.e. the hour with the least solar radiation. However, this will be done without considering the dimensions of the solar panels or the dimensions of the site where the installation is to be located, so choosing this value as definitive could lead to a possible over-sizing of the photovoltaic installation.

To avoid this, the actual area required for the installation is found and this value is compared with the total area that would be occupied by all the photovoltaic panels previously calculated, with which a correction would be made if necessary. Having found the final number of panels needed, it is used to find the power in the time that would deliver the photovoltaic system to receive the global solar irradiation previously predicted, with this and the demand data is made a difference of areas between the two curves, ie between the energy delivered by the panel and demand. Finally, upon finding the appropriate number of photovoltaic panels needed in the installation and the power they would deliver, a simple financial analysis is performed, concluding whether the project is viable with the available data and thus able to give a final recommendation to the possible executor of the project.