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Title: Análisis de los determinantes socioeconómicos y financieros del desempleo en el Ecuador durante la crisis sanitaria por el covid-19.
Authors: Jachero Pupiales, William David
Issue Date: Feb-2022
Publisher: Quito : EPN, 2022
Citation: Jachero Pupiales, W. D. (2022).Análisis de los determinantes socioeconómicos y financieros del desempleo en el Ecuador durante la crisis sanitaria por el covid-19. 44 páginas. Quito : EPN.
Abstract: The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused the greatest health, human, economic and social crisis the world has faced in the last century since World War II. In 2020, more than 90% of economies went into recession, with the Latin American region being one of the most affected (World Bank, 2021). In this context, the countries of the region found it necessary to request financing from multilateral organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the aim of obtaining the necessary resources to face the COVID-19 crisis. To resume its relationship with the IMF, in October 2020, the government of Ecuador signed a technical agreement in which the reformulation of the Organic Code of Planning and Public Finance, and the modification of the Labor and Tax Code are proposed. Within the framework of the technical agreement, the IMF proposes an increase of three percentage points to the Value Added Tax (VAT), the elimination of the foreign exchange exit tax credit in the payment of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and the inclusion of the thirteenth and fourteenth salaries, together with the VAT creditable in the base of the Personal Income Tax (PIT). In this sense, this research evaluates ex-ante the macroeconomic effects generated by a possible tax reform to VAT, CIT and PIT in the Ecuadorian economy. To this end, a static Computable General Equilibrium Model is developed, and a policy proposal is proposed to meet the collection objective of the current Government. The results suggest that an increase in taxes generates higher revenues for the State, but in turn, it increases income inequality and reduces the well-being of households. In addition, the simulations reveal that the first scenario (VAT) is regressive in nature but generates higher tax revenue; while the second scenario (CIT and PIT) is progressive, but hardly collects. Finally, the third scenario, which is a hybrid between VAT and personal income tax, cushions the distributive effects of VAT, and meets the revenue goal of the current government.
Description: La presente investigación analiza la influencia de los factores socioeconómicos y financieros en la probabilidad de que un individuo caiga en el desempleo en el marco de la crisis sanitaria por el COVID-19. Para la investigación se utiliza la encuesta realizada por la Escuela Politécnica Nacional en el mes de mayo de 2020, que buscó diagnosticar la situación económica y financiera de los trabajadores durante la cuarentena. A través de la utilización de tres modelos probit el estudio evidencia que los individuos que poseen ahorros o deudas tienen una menor probabilidad de caer en el desempleo. Por otro lado, encontramos que no poseer seguro social aumenta la probabilidad de quedar desempleado. Finalmente, se analizan las actividades económicas desarrolladas por los trabajadores y su influencia en la pérdida de empleo.
Appears in Collections:Tesis Ciencias Económicas y Financieras (ICEF)

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