Modelo econométrico para la demanda de crédito en personas naturales en Ecuador.

Abstract

The present paper has been proposed, under objectives that seek financial in clusion as a tool of economic support for the Ecuadorian population and for the state. An economic model based on true and reliable information from the Natio nal Survey on Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment (ENEMDU) is proposed, which provides a description of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the country over a considerable period of time. Through the theory on Logistic Models and Logistic Models with bias correction, an attempt is made to recognize the variables that natural persons present and gene rate the need to obtain a loan, in general any type of credit. Since at present there are not many models on the demand for credit, we have worked under analyzes made in other countries, all with their respective reference. Considering that the supply and demand for credit go hand in hand, an attempt is made to recognize what the need for credit represents and generates in the popu lation, in order to suggest changes that will allow this population to access it. The results and interpretations can be supportive for those who wish to work with a deeper or different approach. The software used is known as R and the code that generates the final model will be observed. In addition to the bibliography that has helped to achieve the proposed objectives.