Factores microeconómicos y macroeconómicos que inciden en la morosidad de los créditos bancarios en el Ecuador, período 2017-2022.

Abstract

The performance of the financial system is essential for economic development because it is responsible for promoting market dynamics, mobilizing and allocating resources for productive activities. The main activity of financial intermediation has an uncertain behavior and there is a possibility that the client defaults on the payment of its credit, increasing risk and, consequently, financial uncertainty (Mishkin, 2007; Guillen, & Peñafiel, 2018). The present study aims to determine the relationship that exists between delinquency and microeconomic and macroeconomic factors for 23 private banks in Ecuador in quarterly periods from 2017-2022, employing the GMM dynamic panel data methodology. For this purpose, information from statistical bulletins of the Superintendency of Banks, statistical information from INEC and national accounts of the Central Bank of Ecuador were used. The results obtained show a greater influence of macroeconomic variables on delinquency. With respect to the delinquency rate, its high positive and significant significance in its first lag shows its dynamic nature. Also, the most representative microeconomic variable that presented an immediate effect was ROA with a negative and significant relationship. In addition, the most representative macroeconomic variables were inflation and unemployment with a positive and significant relationship.