Análisis de los escenarios respecto al crecimiento de las energías no convencionales en el Ecuador para el año 2030 : prospectiva de las energías renovables no convencionales en el ecuador para el año 2030.

Abstract

In this Curricular Integration Work (ICT), an analysis of Ecuador's Energy Prospective for the year 2030 was carried out, with a specific focus on Non-Conventional Renewable Energies, focusing mainly on energy supply. Three scenarios were proposed: the BAU Scenario (Business As Usual), the Medium Incorporation Scenario (EIM) and the High Incorporation Scenario (EIA). The BAU Scenario reflects the current situation and its respective growth in energy supply based on historical trends. On the other hand, the Medium Incorporation (EIM) and High Incorporation (EIA) Scenarios show different possibilities regarding the diversification of energy sources and their contribution to the national energy matrix, taking into account how Non-Conventional Renewable Energies (ERNC) can play an increasingly important role in the country's energy supply. A comparison of these scenarios is also made with the projected demand and imports of various energy resources for the year 2030, based on historical data of at least a decade to have greater reliability in the results obtained. This comparison sheds light on the potential implications of policy and strategic decisions on the nation's energy future. To carry out this analysis, modeling tools were used and graphs were generated in Microsoft Excel to facilitate visualization and understanding of the results. This allows decision makers and the community in general to obtain a clearer vision of the possible energy scenarios for the year 2030.