Efecto del crimen en el sector turístico ecuatoriano antes y después de la pandemia COVID -19.

Abstract

This study delves into the impact of crime on Ecuador's tourism industry, both before and after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its objective is to discern the correlation between rising crime rates and the flow of foreign tourists during this period. To achieve this, we utilize data on homicides reported by the Commission on Security, Justice, and Crime, as well as the number of arrivals of non-permanent foreign visitors recorded in the official registry of the Ministry of Tourism. Employing a dynamic model estimated through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), we unveil a negative relationship between crime and tourism. Additionally, we identify a negative association between the parameter representing structural change in the model and tourism, indicating a decline in tourism post-COVID-19 pandemic. In essence, the arrival of foreign visitors to Ecuador tends to diminish after the pandemic compared to preceding periods. Conversely, a positive correlation is found between total average current salary and tourism. Thus, the findings imply that improved economic conditions stimulate tourism, whereas heightened crime levels deter the influx of foreign visitors to the country