Procesos puntuales espaciales y sus aplicaciones : Procesos puntuales de Neyman-Scott.

Abstract

Ecuador is one of the countries with high seismic risk, since it is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire and is located on several geological fault systems, the main one being the fault generated by the subduction of the Nazca oceanic tectonic plate and the South American terrestrial plate, which when colliding, generate telluric movements, which depending on their depth and intensity, can cause serious damage. In this work, the spatial characteristics of earthquakes are studied from a spatial point process point of view, for which we consider hypothesis tests, the Kfunction and the quadrant test. Then a spatial-temporal model, ETAS , is fitted which allow us to identify the locations with most seismic activity in the region. In this paper we used the Homogenized Catalog of 2009 of the Geophysical Institute of the Escuela Politécnica Nacional , which contains the record of the earthquakes from 1901 to 2009, whose spatial window covers the area of ​​those seismic events that could cause a significant earthquake in Ecuador. From this seismic catalogue, an exploratory analysis of the data was carried out, a temporal analysis, where a temporal model was adjusted for the magnitude and depth variables respectively and then the spatial analysis was carried out, where according to the spatial characteristics previously obtained, two inhomogeneous Poisson models and an inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott Cluster model with Cauchy distribution within each cluster were adjusted, in addition to the ETAS and ETASFLP models.