Análisis de transiciones y rendimiento de la educación en el mercado laboral ecuatoriano : análisis de transiciones en condición de actividad dentro del mercado laboral (2022-2023) en Ecuador.

Abstract

The labor market in economies is characterized by the constant movement of individuals to and from different states or situations, which may include activity conditions, productive sectors, geographical locations, etc.; such movements are called “labor transitions.” These transitions shape the dynamics of the labor market and the trajectories through which people move within it, thus significantly influencing economic and social development. Therefore, understanding these transitions and, in particular, identifying their determining factors is crucial. This research analyzes the determinants (from the labor supply perspective) of labor transitions (between the states of inactivity, unemployment, adequate employment, and inadequate employment) in Ecuador during the period 2022-2023. For this purpose, Multinomial Logit models are estimated using data from the Quarterly Longitudinal Matching Database of the National Employment and Underemployment Survey (ENEMDU) for the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2023. The study’s results are robust and show that several variables, both personal (age, education, ethnicity, and gender) and sociodemographic (area, marital status, weekly working hours, and sector of activity), significantly influence labor transitions, increasing or decreasing the probability of transitioning to and from certain states. These findings allow for the outlining of a series of public policies that promote improvements in the trajectories of individuals within the Ecuadorian labor market.