Planificación óptima del consumo de combustible diésel para la estación de bombeo amazonas del Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP) Ecuador S.A.99 hojas. Quito : EPN.

Abstract

Incorporating the forecast in the purchasing management of a company is important for efficient planning of supplies. In this case, the company OCP Ecuador S.A. faces the challenges related to the management of diesel purchases for the Amazonas pumping station, which leaves open the optimization of activities and resources. To solve this problem, two models are proposed: ARIMA and ARIMAX using data from the period January 2014 to December 2019. In both models the iterative modeling approach in four stages of Box-Jenkins is adopted. First, an ARIMA model is performed, however, when performing the projection, it does not show a good fit with the real data. Subsequently, exogenous variables are considered in the construction of the model. It is concluded that the variables: API degrees, outlet temperature and pumped volume affect the diesel consumption of the Amazonas station. The projection is also carried out, which has an acceptable fit compared to the actual data. The result of the study suggests that the best model to solve this type of problem is the ARIMAX model, since it considers the inclusion of exogenous variables to the model and improves the forecast of diesel consumption in the short term.