Efectos provocados por el COVID-19 en la Red Productiva Ecuatoriana.

Abstract

The pandemic by COVID-19 has showed the fragility of the Ecuadorian economic structure. This event is an exogenous shock that first impacted aggregate supply and subsequently produced distortions in demand. Therefore, to determine the ex-ante effects of the crisis, we appeal to the implementation of an expanded input-output multisectoral evaluation model, with foreign trade and gross added value on the Ecuadorian productive system. In this way, an analysis of contractual scenarios is carried out using Montecarlo simulations. The probability distribution behind these simulations is calibrated through a meta-analysis. One of the main results shows that the average variation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2020 is -6,5%. Simultaneously, the performance of professional, technical and administrative activities (64) and transportation and storage (58) are established as the sectors of greatest significance in the variation of this economic aggregate. Additionally, to complement the analysis, we estimate the behavior of Ecuadorian imports and exports during 2020.