Modelo para la proyección de vehículos eléctricos particulares en el Ecuador y sus requerimientos de demanda, utilizando patrones de crecimiento logístico y simulación de Montecarlo.

Abstract

The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale constitutes a fundamental pillar for the energy transition towards cleaner and more sustainable transport systems, however, the impact that this integration would have on the electricity grids of energy distribution companies remains an unanswered question.

Hence, at present a model has not been identified that estimates the quantities of vehicles that could be incorporated into electrical systems, mainly due to the lack of methodologies that specify the adoption of the EV market, its technical specifications and characteristics of aggregate mobility patterns for electric charging.

To solve this situation, a comprehensive model was developed that incorporates on the one hand the development of a methodology based on sigmoidal logistic growth models considering data collected on historical EV sales for the quantitative forecast on the adoption of a new technology, and complementarily the development of an algorithm implemented in a Python environment that considers as input the quantities defined in the forecast and determines load profiles with A temporary resolution of 10 minutes.

In this way, the model was applied to Empresa Eléctrica Quito – E.E.Q considering its particular characteristics at the system level. As a result, differences were found in EV charging patterns on weekdays and weekends, due to the number of simulated vehicle units and the combined stochasticity of technical factors such as charge status, time and charging power.

In turn, when quantifying the impact of a controlled incorporation of fully electric residential light vehicles, it was identified that the maximum demand that the distribution system must meet with a horizon to 2032 would grow by 3.3% (38 MW), compared to the estimate of its base demand 1,165 MW.