Desarrollo metodológico del modelo actuarial de múltiples estados casado - viudo y cálculo actuarial del coste por pensiones de jubilación y viudedad.

Abstract

The accurate assessment of the money that the Instituto Ecuatoriano de Seguridad Social (IESS) must have to pay benefits to current and future pensioners is crucial for evaluating the sustainability of the system. Given the high amount of pensions for retirement and widowhood and their temporal implications, along with the poor budgetary situation of the IESS, this project will calculate the expected cost that an individual will represent for the social security system in the case of simultaneous payments for retirement and widowhood. Based on the results, actions such as reforms in the retirement age, contribution rates, and the pension calculation formula could be considered. To estimate the expected cost, an actuarial model of multiple states (married - widowed) was methodologically developed, considering the time that the retiree can remain in three different states: married, widowed, and deceased (without considering that the retiree may remarry after being widowed). Transition probabilities between states and survival probabilities if remaining in the same state were calculated, multiplied by the average amount that retirees or widows receive in that state, subject to financial update and contributory revaluation interests. With the actuarial model implemented in the R statistical software, tables of payments for concurrent retirement and widowhood pensions were obtained. These tables indicated that the mortality of each pensioner increases with age and that the cost per concurrency decreases with age.