Planificación de la expansión de los sistemas de transmisión bajo incertidumbre : modelo de la planificación de la expansión de la transmisión considerando incertidumbre en la demanda y precio de los combustibles.

Abstract

The development of models and methodologies for transmission system expansion planning is crucial in today's energy context, characterized by growing and diversified electricity demand and the volatility of operational parameters. This curricular integration project focuses on developing a multi-stage planning model for the expansion of transmission systems and assessing the risk on the resulting plan. For this purpose, the optimization mathematical model was programmed in Python, and the Garver test system was used for validation. A Monte Carlo simulation, also programmed in Python, was conducted to evaluate the risk due to uncertainty in electricity demand, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the risk generated when new sources of uncertainty are considered. The results highlight the need to consider tools or instruments that allow for flexible planning, thereby mitigating or at least reducing investment risks due to the changing environments under which power systems operate. This comprehensive approach enables better preparation and adaptability of the system to uncertain scenarios, thus improving the efficiency and resilience of the transmission system.