El rol de la tasa de fertilidad en el crecimiento económico de los países: un debate sobre la sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones de reparto : el rol de la tasa de fertilidad en el crecimiento económico.

Abstract

The economic activity can be affected in a negative, positive, or neutral way by the population growth. Consequently, the fertility rate plays a significant role in economic growth. However, it is not the only determinant factor of the growth rate of economic activity. Other key factors include life expectancy, employment rates, investment in research and development, capital stock, and the human capital index. The fertility rate affects the population's age structure, which is crucial for understanding economic growth at various stages of the global demographic transition. This research seeks to offer empirical evidence regarding the link between the total fertility rate and economic growth in 71 countries over the period from 1996 to 2019; to do so, appropriate econometric models for panel data are estimated. The primary finding indicates that an increase in births per woman, measured by the total fertility rate at the national level, is associated with a rise in GDP per capita, a measure of economic growth. This result contrasts with the prevailing literature, which often suggests a negative or neutral relationship between fertility and economic growth. This finding contrasts with the predominant evidence in the literature that suggests a negative or null relationship between fertility and economic growth.