Evaluación de las propuestas de reforma al sistema de pensiones ecuatoriano : cambios en la fórmula de cálculo de la pensión por vejez. / Andrea Barahona Cevallos.

Abstract

The present study aims to evaluate the impact on the economic sustainability of the Instituto Ecuatoriano de Seguridad Social, contrasting the cost of the lifetime pension acquired by a retiree before and after the reform of Article 199 of the Draft Law presented in August 2023. This reform proposes a change in the calculation base of the old-age pension formula, aiming to redefine the pension according to the years of contributions. For this purpose, an application was implemented using the statistical software R, performing a series of calculations, including: the affiliate’s savings during their active period before retirement, the pension under the current system and after the application of the reform, the replacement rate, the required state contribution, among others. Financial and actuarial mathematics knowledge was utilized, aligning with the regulations of the current Ecuadorian Law and the proposed Draft Law. Additionally, mortality tables for both sexes and the 2019 pensioners’ database from Social Security were used as resources. As a result of this curricular integration work, it is concluded that this reform represents a highly effective alternative to address the sustainability of the Pension System. It allows achieving an average saving of up to 21.26 % per retiree and significantly reduces the need for state contributions, extending the last year with a positive reserve, in many cases sufficient to cover up to 100 years of life for its pensioners.