Análisis de escenarios de penetración de energías renovables para promover la movilidad sostenible en la ciudad de Quito : análisis de escenarios de penetración de vehículos eléctricos en el parque automotor en la ciudad de Quito, su prospectiva energética y huella de carbono.

Abstract

This project was carried out with the aim of determining the energy prospects and carbon footprint that would be produced by integrating electric vehicles in the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ). The study was carried out through three scenarios of vehicle growth in the city, projected until the year 2050. In each scenario: Business as usual (BAU), Medium (Med), Minimun (Min), an optimistic and a low income of electric vehicles were analyzed. Based on an analysis of bibliographic sources and data from official organizations, the energy consumption and the amount of CO2-eq emissions produced by each vehicle were calculated, as well as their impact over the years. In the analysis of the scenarios, different factors were considered such as current vehicle sales statistics, demographic projections, government plans and emissions reduction prospects for mobility, at national and international level. The results indicate that, in the lowest growth scenario, with a high penetration of electric vehicles, the DMQ could reduce its CO2-eq emissions by approximately 50% compared to the emissions in the base year. However, in this case it is considered that the energy matrix should maintain the current proportion of participation by technology. The research also addresses an analysis of the impact on energy demand that would be produced by the charging of electric vehicles, according to demographic projections, representing a demand of 970 GWh in 2050 in the BAU scenario with a higher penetration of electric mobility. This represents approximately 20% of the current electricity demand of the DMQ. Finally, the implementation of policies, the development of infrastructure and the promotion of social awareness about the benefits of electromobility are promoted.