Ley de Okun y asimetrías del ciclo económico : Mercado laboral y crecimiento económico.

Abstract

This research analyses the asymmetrical behavior of the relationship between output growth and the variation in the unemployment rate across five country groups of countries. Countries are grouped using data analysis techniques based on their production levels, labor market conditions, and geographical location. We employ Markov Switching Regime models to capture asymmetries in both expansion and recession states. Additionally, we use clustering methods to group countries. The findings reveal that a Markov Switching approach is more effective than a linear approach in capturing Okun’s Law behavior. The analysis of the resulting coefficients and mean durations of the states through clustering indicates different types of asymmetries. We observe that the Okun’s Law relationship exhibits asymmetrical behavior over the business cycle, with some common characteristics within each country group.